Why are U.S. lawmakers trying to block the UAE weapons sale, and will they succeed?
Sydney Boer
Although the $23.4 billion U.S. weapons notifications to the UAE has drawn criticism from civil society and U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, whether the sale will be successfully blocked remains unclear.
On November 10, 2020, the State Department notified Congress of three foreign military sales (FMS) to the UAE consisting of 50 F-35 fighter jets, armed Reaper drones, and $10 billion in munitions.
The notification sparked immediate criticism from arms control and human rights advocates. After the news broke, 29 of these groups stressed in a letter to Congress that the sale is likely to fuel continued civilian casualties and humanitarian crises theatres where the UAE is involved. Amnesty International found evidence of U.S. drones and munitions used in Saudi and Emirati airstrikes against civilian facilities in Yemen since 2015, amplifying concerns that these new weapons will contribute to further civilian harm in the country. Human Rights Watch expressed similar concerns about UAE warfare conduct in Libya due to its past unlawful airstrikes in the country.
Another risk of the weapons transfer is the potential for sensitive U.S. technology and weapons to land in the hands of extremist groups. In 2019, CNN found that the Saudis and Emiratis transferred U.S. weapons to al-Qaeda allies and Salafi militias, which violated U.S. end-use agreements. The UAE also maintains defense ties with China and Russia, creating the risk for these U.S. competitors to access sensitive U.S. information via this defense technology.
Some Israel advocates and U.S. lawmakers have also raised concerns regarding maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME). Since 2008, Congress has been required by law to maintain Israel’s regional military advantage, raising concerns that selling advanced military technology to the UAE may initiate a regional arms race with Israel, as outlined in a recent Congressional Research Service report.
On November 18, 2020, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senators Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), introduced four joint resolutions of disapproval to block the foreing military sales notifications to the UAE. This bipartisan initiative addressed the concerns about civilian casualties, illegal weapons transfers, and Israel’s QME. The next day on November 19, Representative Ilhan Omar (D.-MN) introduced similar resolutions in the House calling for a ban of the weapons package to the UAE.
Congress has until December 10, 2020 to pass legislation blocking the weapons sale through the Congressional Review Process, but neither the Senate or the House has passed any resolutions of disapproval on the subject yet. In general, Democrats support the resolutions more than their Republican counterparts, but some members of President Trump’s party are expressing apprehension about the sale. Senator Rand Paul, a co-author of the Senate bill, has acted as the leading Republican voice against the sale, telling Politico that “you can’t buy peace with guns.” After a closed door meeting on November 30, Congressional aides from both sides of the aisle said that members of both parties were uneasy about entrusting such advanced weaponry to the Gulf state.
Senator Mendenez, a key author of the resolutions, told Reuters that he expects a vote on the Senate resolutions next week. Although it is still a realistic possibility for Congress to pass legislation to block the sale, CIP’s William Hartung told Defense One that chances are very slim for Congress to achieve a two-thirds majority in both houses and override a presidential veto of the resolution.
The Trump administration is almost certain to veto any Congressional legislation against the sale, but the incoming Biden administration could still halt the transfer. During his campaign, President-elect Biden promised to end arms sales and military support to the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, which would logically extend to the UAE’s military involvement in the conflict. SAM’s Elias Youif told the Middle East Eye that the arms sale is an “unfortunate endorsement” from the U.S. of the Gulf state’s regional ambitions. He noted that the President has the opportunity to intervene in the UAE sale up until its delivery, so if the incoming administration keeps its word, then Biden is likely to block the sales after he arrives in the White House in January.
On November 10, 2020, the State Department notified Congress of three foreign military sales (FMS) to the UAE consisting of 50 F-35 fighter jets, armed Reaper drones, and $10 billion in munitions.
The notification sparked immediate criticism from arms control and human rights advocates. After the news broke, 29 of these groups stressed in a letter to Congress that the sale is likely to fuel continued civilian casualties and humanitarian crises theatres where the UAE is involved. Amnesty International found evidence of U.S. drones and munitions used in Saudi and Emirati airstrikes against civilian facilities in Yemen since 2015, amplifying concerns that these new weapons will contribute to further civilian harm in the country. Human Rights Watch expressed similar concerns about UAE warfare conduct in Libya due to its past unlawful airstrikes in the country.
Another risk of the weapons transfer is the potential for sensitive U.S. technology and weapons to land in the hands of extremist groups. In 2019, CNN found that the Saudis and Emiratis transferred U.S. weapons to al-Qaeda allies and Salafi militias, which violated U.S. end-use agreements. The UAE also maintains defense ties with China and Russia, creating the risk for these U.S. competitors to access sensitive U.S. information via this defense technology.
Some Israel advocates and U.S. lawmakers have also raised concerns regarding maintaining maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME). Since 2008, Congress has been required by law to maintain Israel’s regional military advantage, raising concerns that selling advanced military technology to the UAE may initiate a regional arms race with Israel, as outlined in a recent Congressional Research Service report.
On November 18, 2020, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senators Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.), introduced four joint resolutions of disapproval to block the foreing military sales notifications to the UAE. This bipartisan initiative addressed the concerns about civilian casualties, illegal weapons transfers, and Israel’s QME. The next day on November 19, Representative Ilhan Omar (D.-MN) introduced similar resolutions in the House calling for a ban of the weapons package to the UAE.
Congress has until December 10, 2020 to pass legislation blocking the weapons sale through the Congressional Review Process, but neither the Senate or the House has passed any resolutions of disapproval on the subject yet. In general, Democrats support the resolutions more than their Republican counterparts, but some members of President Trump’s party are expressing apprehension about the sale. Senator Rand Paul, a co-author of the Senate bill, has acted as the leading Republican voice against the sale, telling Politico that “you can’t buy peace with guns.” After a closed door meeting on November 30, Congressional aides from both sides of the aisle said that members of both parties were uneasy about entrusting such advanced weaponry to the Gulf state.
Senator Mendenez, a key author of the resolutions, told Reuters that he expects a vote on the Senate resolutions this week. Although it is still a realistic possibility for Congress to pass legislation to block the sale, CIP’s William Hartung told Defense One that chances are very slim for Congress to achieve a two-thirds majority in both houses and override a presidential veto of the resolution.
The Trump administration is almost certain to veto any Congressional legislation against the sale, but the incoming Biden administration could still halt the transfer. During his campaign, President-elect Biden promised to end arms sales and military support to the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, which would logically extend to the UAE’s military involvement in the conflict. SAM’s Elias Youif told the Middle East Eye that the arms sale is an “unfortunate endorsement” from the U.S. of the Gulf state’s regional ambitions. He noted that the President has the opportunity to intervene in the UAE sale up until its delivery, so if the incoming administration keeps its word, then Biden is likely to block the sales after he arrives in the White House in January.